Sunday, June 28, 2009

Risk tolerance: The sales tool


Some investment promoters claim they have all this covered. They ask you a series of questions about your risk tolerance before they sell you their products:
  • “If the market declines 25 percent in one year, will you take your money out?”
  • “Are you able to keep the long-term in mind when markets
fluctuate or are you more comfortable with investments that do not fluctuate?”
These tests determine your so-called “risk tolerance.” Risk tolerance is your ability to handle volatility. Risk tolerance tests are supposed to match you to compatible investments. Unfortunately, they don’t. Risk tolerance is not a good measure of investment compatibility. At best, it measures a narrow aspect of your personality: your theoretical ability to handle volatility. Even if your broker happens to sell the product that is theoretically right for your risk profile and you buy it, studies show that how people think they will react under adverse market conditions and how they actually react are quite different. In fact, few of us know ourselves well enough to know how we would really react in future unknown situations. The real problem is that risk tolerance tests do not touch the crucial issues: who you are as an investor and how investments interact with your personality. For example, they do not address the issue of the adverse relationships you have with the investment seller and others. In fact, they disguise this issue. These tests lead you to believe that you and the salesperson have the same interest. The tests do not address the issue of overconfidence. Overconfident investors believe they have high risk tolerance when they do not. The tests do not address the issue of people pleasing. People pleasers are often aware that they have low risk tolerance but they buy high risk investments to make their broker or their coworkers happy. In fact, risk tolerance tests do not accurately address any of the issues that will lead you to purchase incompatible investments.
Risk tolerance tests are equally ineffective for average personalities and for extreme personalities such as workaholics, gamblers, and compulsive debtors. Extreme personalities typically have little or no self-knowledge. They will fill out risk profiles identical to those of average investors. Yet once sold an investment product, they will abuse it to a degree unimaginable by the average public. Risk tolerance tests do not pick up money addicts of any kind and lead to no help for these people or those affected by them.
While money addiction is more prevalent in our society than most people realize, the vast majority of investors suffer from less extreme forms of investment incompatibility. The more common symptoms include loss of sleep, irritability, unexplained anger or depression, random resentments, a sense that investing is meaningless, money arguments with a spouse or partner that neither can comprehend, a dim view of retirement possibilities, and a thousand forms of fear.
The major investment fears are that you do not have enough investments now, won’t have enough in the future, or will lose what you already have. Then these fears lead to further fears. If you don’t have enough savings, then how could you have enough money for travel, clothes, restaurants, a new car, a better house, a real life? Or you fear you cannot and will not ever grasp the mathematical complexities of compound interest and probability theory and you cannot trust those who do understand these concepts. Then there is the underlying fear that investing is irrational and no amount of study will help.
The premise of this book is that these feelings and fears are normal and healthy; understanding them and understanding the emotional hooks of different investments will lead to a greater sense of peace and contentment in your life. They don’t sell peace and contentment on Wall Street. You have to find it within yourself first and then look for the investments that enhance it, rather than disturb it.
When you know more about yourself and about the products that are out there, no risk tolerance tests with hidden agendas will sell you incompatible investments anymore. Investing will become an area of great satisfaction in your life.

Understanding investment compatibility

Investment compatibility becomes a possibility when you first admit that investing triggers difficult emotions. Try this series of questions and see if you relate to any part of the emotional dilemma:

  • Have you ever found yourself losing sleep over the market, angry with your broker, unsatisfied with your returns, yet unable to pull out of the market?
  • Are you jealous of your business associate who has turned it all over to a money manager and has no idea how he is doing?
  • Does the woman across the street with her string of singlefamily houses irritate you?
  • How did you react when that 35-year-old coworker retired?
  • Do you value honesty yet find you have lied to several people about your investments and investment returns?
  • Do you seek serenity over financial security?
  • Will high returns bring you serenity or just increase your craving for more high returns?

The more you look at it, the more emotionally charged investing becomes. Financial advisors discuss risk as risk of losing money. Isn’t the real risk emotional? If you are not in the stock market, you risk being an outcast at the beach gatherings this summer. But if you are in the market, you risk losing sleep and losing time trying to keep up with how you are doing, how the market is doing, and how well everyone else is doing compared to how you are doing.
If you knew yourself better and knew more about the emotional aspects of different investments, investing would be more satisfying. Try this question. Is it easiest for you to trust people, financial markets, or the U.S. Treasury?
Those who have a hard time trusting people will find that turning their assets over to a money manager or a stockbroker creates fear. Many independent business people founded and built up their own businesses because they only really trust themselves. That is fine. If you are like that, yet you have turned your money over to a money manager, you will be uncomfortable even if the money manager produces outstanding financial results. You will be happier making all your own investment decisions even if it costs you money.
Some people cannot trust financial markets. Perhaps you saw your parents lose a fortune in stocks. In that case, you may be more comfortable receiving interest payments from Treasury bonds, even if you could make more money in stocks.

Investing triggers many emotions


To be comfortable saving for retirement and spending savings in retirement, your investments must satisfy both your financial and emotional needs. When your investments are lucrative, but you and your investments are not emotionally compatible, you will either get rid of them and look for something new and possibly more incompatible or stew in your misery. Yet it is difficult to even know what your needs are in this relationship. You are subject to great cultural pressure today to own U.S. stocks, especially the latest fad stocks. It is not just that everybody at the office claims to own them and is checking the results online all day. There are whole institutions devoted to this: CNBC, The Nightly Business News, The Wall Street Journal, a thousand Web sites, and chat rooms. The pressure to own stocks so you can converse about them is high. But are you happy with them? Is anybody happy with them? How many of your colleagues have stopped to ask what their emotional needs are in their investment relationships? Do they act like they know what their emotional needs are? Let’s return to the question that started this chapter and look at the emotional dilemma apart from the financial. What emotions are triggered by having to choose between retirement savings and vacations? Do you find yourself feeling guilty when you go to Hawaii instead of putting the money in an IRA? Or do you get depressed when you cannot go to Hawaii because all your extra savings are tied up in IRAs and other retirement plans?